Scenario planning has slowly developed from the mid 1980's when Royal Dutch Shell used it as a means to surface the mental models of their planning team.

David Kreutzer (GKA & Associates, Boston, USA) combined scenario planning and systems thinking in a way that validated the plausible futures created by the process. I trained under David in 1996 and have used a modified version of this methodology since 1997 with outstanding success.

There is still a lot of misunderstanding surrounding scenario planning. Many people fail to realise that scenarios are not predictions, they are plausible futures.

Therefore the differences between strategic and scenario planning are as follows:-

· The Strategic Plan is framed from the "planner's" worldview (mental model). It is almost impossible for management to look into the future in any other way than from their current set of beliefs. Therefore they only plan for what they can "see" in that future.

Scenario Planning opens the minds of planners to totally new opportunities /threats that are beyond their current realisation. Management gains a deeper understanding of the future trends likely to effect the organisation.

· Strategic planning focuses on obtaining a fit between the organisation, it's environment and resources. When your aim is to fit your resource capability to the perceived future opportunities, you restrict the development of strategy, and you continue to produce performances that return "more of the same".

Scenario Planning provides a better understanding of the organisation's competitive advantages and how to exploit them. It assists employees to develop new innovative ways to leverage resources and create value.

· Traditional Strategic Planning methods try to "predict" the future trends based upon past history. This forecasting approach cannot handle rapid changes, crisis, or unpredictability.

Through the use of scenarios, managers increase their ability to adapt rapidly to changes in the business environment. Because strategies are tested through the various scenarios, managers also have greater confidence in the future direction of the organisation

· Most plans never truly achieve their potential due to the difficulty management has in implementing change effectively. The creation of a real vision and its deployment throughout the organisation is critical. Most strategic plans fail to address this fact effectively.

The Scenario Planning process creates a shared vision and enables its deployment in a way that results in improved teamwork and productivity. The scenarios provide a common "language" about the future that allows all employees to understand how their contribution effects the organisation